Equity Quant > Equity Quant 100 Performance

HYPOTHETICAL RATES OF RETURN (ROR) FROM STRATEGY BACK TESTING

Below are given backtesting (hypothetical) rates of return of the Equity Quant 100 trading program. Commissions and trading subscription fees were not deducted (subtract 2.5-5% from annual ROR to account for these costs). Please read the hypothetical performance disclaimer first.

    

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total % VAMI* VAMI/w**
1987 (0.07%) 9.81% 8.34% 1.74% 1.72% 2.28% 0.91% 1.93% 0.85% (11.51%) 6.48% 4.07% 28.01% $1,280.1 $1,274.1
1988 8.75% 8.58% 8.61% 5.44% 2.88% 2.04% 0.46% 1.30% 6.95% 4.73% 0.59% 3.32% 68.15% $2,152.4 $2,486.9
1989 8.85% 2.63% 0.91% 3.59% (1.86%) 4.34% 7.76% 4.38% 1.16% 6.55% 1.71% 0.64% 48.43% $3,194.7 $3,978.2
1990 12.92% 3.04% (1.15%) (2.80%) 7.16% 4.54% 1.10% 4.78% (8.45%) 0.89% 9.13% 7.03% 43.13% $4,572.7 $5,971.8
1991 9.57% 9.66% 8.97% 6.88% 7.08% 2.75% 2.62% 2.37% 0.23% 1.00% 0.35% 7.11% 76.01% $8,048.2 $12,483.3
1992 3.32% 4.70% 0.01% 6.12% 2.53% (2.07%) (0.68%) 3.62% 0.29% 3.91% 5.96% 3.06% 35.01% $10,865.7 $17,464.7
1993 2.75% 2.79% 6.25% (0.21%) 0.85% (3.44%) 6.21% 11.26% 2.41% 0.35% 4.41% 0.66% 39.17% $15,121.5 $25,486.3
1994 10.07% (1.83%) 2.68% 6.70% 3.91% 0.10% 0.27% (0.64%) (0.02%) 2.63% 4.72% 4.16% 37.29% $20,759.6 $36,637.1
1995 5.27% 7.12% 5.59% 4.22% 7.59% 5.85% 12.83% 2.10% 4.56% (5.12%) 1.63% 5.37% 72.94% $35,901.7 $74,655.9
1996 10.80% 6.85% 5.86% (0.89%) 9.38% 0.35% 4.10% 2.79% 5.15% 2.54% 1.77% 5.20% 68.41% $60,462.7 $146,355
1997 4.94% 1.09% 6.91% 7.08% 5.32% 4.25% 1.04% 0.48% 4.60% (0.87%) 5.01% 2.64% 51.29% $91,474.4 $241,313
1998 8.73% 7.00% 5.81% 2.18% 1.12% (1.60%) (0.16%) (7.83%) 5.76% 11.35% 5.09% 1.60% 44.82% $132,473 $370,728
1999 4.55% 9.92% 1.40% 22.24% 1.79% 8.18% (0.11%) 3.85% (2.51%) 6.51% (3.54%) (4.25%) 56.05% $206,730 $627,300
2000 15.85% (3.12%) 23.14% 11.23% 7.59% 1.94% 1.85% 1.50% (2.72%) 4.98% 10.91% 8.44% 114.08% $442,562 $1,865,530
2001 17.90% 1.06% 9.38% 7.53% 3.93% 2.75% 9.97% 0.10% (6.79%) 7.68% 1.81% 6.01% 78.43% $789,679 $3,841,867
2002 6.38% (5.14%) (1.86%) (1.39%) 5.80% (1.19%) 20.75% 6.00% (6.87%) 6.65% 3.92% 3.25% 39.28% $1,099,893 $5,397,801
2003 4.45% (0.17%) 10.18% 4.56% 3.66% 3.33% (3.23%) (1.75%) 2.94% 0.63% 2.29% 1.35% 31.40% $1,445,244 $7,289,460
2004 1.67% 1.47% 0.80% 5.26% 0.93% 1.99% (2.52%) 5.97% (0.02%) (1.77%) 5.44% 1.92% 22.86% $1,775,588 $9,069,851
2005 (0.12%) (6.89%) 5.91% 3.98% 1.75% 1.37% 2.73% (0.16%) (1.60%) (1.98%) 6.36% 1.36% 12.65% $2,000,118 $10,183,915
2006 (2.99%) 4.16% 10.16% (0.88%) 3.52% (1.06%) 8.49% 4.85% (6.41%) 6.23% 1.70% 2.43% 33.13% $2,662,721 $14,017,009

* VAMI (Value Added Monthly Index) - Hypothetical Growth of $1,000 by reinvesting the profit annually

** VAMI/w - Value Added Monthly Index, by reinvesting weekly

The diagram above shows the profit on fixed capital without profit reinvesting, while the diagram below shows the account value if the profit from trading is reinvested (compounded return). Note the diagram below is in semi-logarithmic coordinates.

Performance Analytics

Testing period (Jan/1987-Dec/2006) 240 months/ 20 yrs
Gross profit 1158.12%
Gross loss -157.8%
Net profit on fixed capital, non-compounded 1000.32%
Average annualized compound rate of return ROR) / annualized standard deviation of monthly RORs 48.34% / 19.93%
Average annual compound ROR (with weekly profit reinvesting) 61.19%
Average monthly ROR / standard deviation 4.17% / 5.75%
Profit factor on monthly basis (ratio gross profit/ gross loss) 7.43
# Winning months 194 (80.8%)
# Losing months 46 (19.2%)
Average winning month 5.97%
Average losing month 3.43%
Ratio average winning/average losing month 1.74
Max. monthly profit / loss 23.14% / -11.51%
Max. consecutive winning / losing months 20 / 3
Worst drawdown (month end to month end) -11.5%; 10/1987-12/1987
Worst intramonth drawdown, peak to valley -24.6%; 08/1987-01/1988
Sharpe Ratio (risk-free rate of return 4.6%) 2.20
Calmar Ratio (ratio average annual ROR to maximum drawdown), for the life of trading 1.96
Longest time to recover from losses 6 months
Type of trading Equity Long/Short
Instruments traded 100 highly capitalized NYSE stocks
How generated

  Back testing - Hypothetical

Tradable account size $200,000 minimum

The following performance measures are particularly important:

- The Profit Factor (PF), (ratio gross profit/ gross loss), can also be considered as amount of Dollars gained per each $1 lost. A trading system with PF greater than unity is profitable, and system with PF>2 is considered excellent.

- The Calmar Ratio (CR), which is a measure of the risk adjusted profit. It is not sufficiently to look for high annual rate of return (ROR). It is much more important to compare the the annual ROR with the drawdown, as the more apparent measure of risk. Systems with high Calmar Ratio allow higher leverage to be used, which actually increases the annual ROR.

Monthly rates of return (ROR) have been calculated, by dividing the monthly hypothetical net performance by the previous month account equity. The VAMI (Value Added Monthly Index) charts above shows the hypothetical growth of $1,000, by compounding yearly. You can read here on reinvesting and ROR calculations.

Compounding is an efficient method for increasing the account equity exponentially by reinvesting profits from trading (see the VAMI chart above). Try this Financial Calculator.

The above tables and charts document Equity Quant's historical hypothetical performance based on strategy back testing. Bid/ask spread equal to 0.02% of stock price (1 cent spread per $55 average portfolio stock price) were factored into calculations. Please note that performance results reported are before commissions. The system makes 100 trades each and every week, which is approximately $100/week or  $5,000/annum in commissions (assuming commission of  $0.005 per share with minimum of $1). This is roughly a 2.5% commission cost in a $200,000 account, and this percentage should be deducted from the annual ROR from trading. Of course, smaller accounts have relatively larger commission costs. Price slippage can also affect performance, but slippage (as a random variable) will probably cancel each other in long term.

Contact us to request monthly performance updates.

Hypothetical Performance Disclaimer:

HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVERCOMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PLATFORMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Risk Disclaimer

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. THE PERFORMANCE QUOTED REPRESENTS PAST HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE AND CURRENT PERFORMANCE MAY BE LOWER OR HIGHER. THIS IS NOT A SOLICITATION TO INVEST AND YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTION. PLEASE SEE THE COMPLETE  Legal Notice.

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